Bitcoin Performance Analysis During the Last Halving — And What to Expect for the Future
On April 19, 2024, Bitcoin went through one of its most anticipated milestones: the Halving, the moment when mining rewards are cut in half, reducing the issuance of new Bitcoins. It’s a simple yet powerful mechanism that, with every cycle, has the potential to transform the entire crypto market.
Since the event is still recent, its effects are still unfolding.
So, let’s ask:
• What changes when the halving happens?
• Has Bitcoin already shown signs of appreciation?
• What lessons can we take from the past to better understand the future of this asset?
This Article dives into these questions and outlines a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin's performance, offering valuable insights for those looking to strategically prepare for the next cycle.
What is the Halving?
Bitcoin halving is a built-in event that happens roughly every four years. It was designed by Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, and is part of the system’s original code.
Here’s how it works:Every time a new block of transactions is added to the blockchain, miners receive a reward in Bitcoin. The halving cuts that reward in half.
For example:If miners currently earn 6.25 BTC per block, after the next halving they’ll earn only 3.125 BTC.
But why?
The idea behind halving is both simple and ingenious: to control Bitcoin’s supply over time, creating a scarce asset that, unlike fiat currencies, cannot be issued indefinitely. As shown in the chart below, this combats inflation and encourages the natural appreciation of the asset over the years.
Each halving brings with it narrative shifts, market cycles, and new all-time highs, and this new cycle appears to be no exception.
Effects of the Halving on Bitcoin
Historically, Bitcoin halvings kick off new market phases.
While the effects aren’t instant, data shows significant price increases in the months following each event, influencing Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem.
Let’s review past impacts and the current cycle’s progress as of April 2025:
Halving 2012: Block rewards fell from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. A year later, the price soared from $12 to over $1,000, marking Bitcoin’s first major bull run.
Halving 2016: Rewards dropped from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. The price climbed from $650 to $2,500 within 18 months, fueling altcoin growth.
Halving 2020: Rewards decreased from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. Bitcoin surged from $8,700 to $69,000 by late 2021, driven by DeFi, NFTs, and institutional adoption.
Halving 2024: On April 19, 2024, rewards fell to 3.125 BTC per block. Unlike past cycles, Bitcoin began appreciating before the Halving, hitting $70,000 in Q1 2024, spurred by U.S. spot ETF approvals and institutional inflows. Post-halving, a brief correction occurred, but by April 2025, Bitcoin has stabilized around $83,000, a 70% year-over-year gain, with peaks as high as $109,000 in late 2024.
This cycle’s early rally and subsequent consolidation suggest a maturing market, one that reacts more quickly and with greater sophistication to triggers like ETF approvals and halvings, and these changes may be influencing how Bitcoin moves through its traditional cycle phases.
The Four Cycles of Bitcoin
Bitcoin's behavior tends to follow a four-phase cycle:
Accumulation Occurs after a long downtrend. Long-term investors and new participants buy at low prices in anticipation of a future rise.
Bull Market (Run-up) Usually triggered by a halving, marked by growing demand, limited supply, and increased capital inflow. The price rise accelerates progressively.
Distribution With high prices, investors take profits. Selling volume increases, volatility grows, and signs of exhaustion appear.
Bear Market (Run-down) Enthusiasm fades, prices fall, fear takes hold. This phase can last months to over a year, until a new accumulation period starts.
These phases aren’t strict rules, but patterns that frequently repeat across cycles, usually aligned with the four-year halving interval.
Where Are We in the Current Cycle?
As of April 2025, we’re nearly a year into the post-halving phase.
Historical patterns suggest we’re in the early-to-mid bull market stage.
However, this cycle brought something new: appreciation began months before the halving, a rare occurrence.
This early movement can be explained by:
The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S., attracting billions in institutional capital.
A surge in Bitcoin’s perception as a store of value and inflation hedge.
A macroeconomic environment increasingly open to digital asset adoption.
After a brief correction in mid-2024, Bitcoin rallied to $109,000 by Q4 2024, fueled by institutional buying and Trump’s pro-crypto policies. It has since settled at $83,000, reflecting a 70% gain from April 2024.
This faster, more mature market response hints at a shift in Bitcoin’s traditional cycle dynamics, one increasingly influenced by macro factors and institutional flows rather than purely retail sentiment or halving-driven speculation.
Contributing Factors
Several factors have shaped this cycle:
U.S. Spot ETFs: Approved in January 2024, companies such as Blackrock, Grayscale, and VanEck, launched Bitcoin ETFs that opened floodgates for institutional capital. Bitcoin jumped from $40,000 to $70,000 pre-halving, with inflows continuing into 2025. By Q1 2025, ETF holdings surpassed 1 million BTC, per industry reports.
Trump Administration: Since January 2025, Trump’s pledge to make the U.S. the “crypto capital” has boosted sentiment. Policies like strategic BTC reserves pushed prices to $109,000, though volatility spiked due to debates over purchase restrictions.
Institutional Adoption: Pension funds and hedge funds have doubled down. Wisconsin’s Investment Board now holds 8M ETF shares, while Tudor Investment Corp’s stake hit $500M by March 2025.
Global Reserves: El Salvador (6,102 BTC), Bhutan ($750M), and newcomers like Argentina (pilot reserve of 1,000 BTC) underscore growing state-level adoption.
ooking Ahead: Market Impacts and Other Movements
The crypto market has seen major shifts recently, driven by political decisions, institutional movements, and evolving investor behavior.
Some of the key forces shaping this new phase are:
Government Policies: Since Donald Trump took office in January 2025, the U.S. adopted a more crypto-friendly stance. He declared his intent to make the U.S. the world’s crypto capital, pushing BTC from $69,733 to $109,000. Currently, it's at $83,000, up 70% YoY.
However, some measures (e.g., strategic crypto reserves and purchase restrictions) caused market volatility and community backlash.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserves by Governments:
Whale Activity: Whales sold $10B in BTC from September to November 2024 but resumed accumulating in Q1 2025, holding over 2M BTC (estimated) collectively, a bullish signal.
From Cycles to Consolidation: Bitcoin’s New Role in Global Markets
While halving has historically triggered huge price surges, this cycle shows those effects may be softening.
Consider the Return over investment (ROI):
1st Halving (2012): ~78x return
2nd Halving (2016): ~3.77x
3rd Halving (2020): ~8.11x
4th Halving (2024): ~1.3x so far
This trend likely reflects Bitcoin’s growing maturity and the larger size of the overall market.
As Bitcoin becomes more integrated into traditional finance and the asset class grows, it becomes harder for the price to skyrocket purely based on halving-driven supply cuts.
In short: halving still matters, but it no longer has the explosive impact it once did.
Bitcoin Maturing: From Volatility to Store of Value
This smoother, less explosive growth suggests a maturing market.
With institutional entry, ETF approval, and wider government and bank acceptance, Bitcoin is shifting from speculative asset to long-term value store.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink called Bitcoin “a way to digitize gold.”
Like gold, Bitcoin is scarce, inflation-resistant, and hard to mine, but it’s also transferable, custodiable, and auditable via blockchain.
This positions Bitcoin closer to traditional assets in narrative and value.
Ripple Effects: ETFs, Altcoins, and Regulation
The halving’s impact extends across the crypto landscape. Bitcoin’s rise typically lifts other assets, and that’s already happening this cycle.
At the same time, ETF approval and institutional visibility bring regulatory pressure. Governments must now choose: support, regulate, or restrict crypto activity.
As Bitcoin grows in capital and influence, staying out of the market is becoming increasingly hard , even for states.
In summary, the 2024 halving not only signals a new market phase but potentially the start of a new era for Bitcoin: more stable, more institutional, and more integrated into the global financial system.
Though percentage gains may be smaller, Bitcoin’s strategic importance is rising. From wild speculation to global consolidation, this evolution could prove even more valuable over the long term.
