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Bitcoin falls after macro headwinds

Adam Jakobsen
April 2, 2024
2 minutes

Yesterday, Bitcoin fell sharply within a 25 minute time frame from about $69.209 to $66.750, dragging other major cryptocurrencies with it, according to Coingecko. The drawback even intensified as Bitcoin went as low as $64.673, but has now stabilised around the $66.000 mark.

NBX remains the leading cryptocurrency exchange when it comes to AML.

As we reported last wednesday, Bitcoin experienced an uplift in price after the streak of net outflows from the combined ETF-flow came to a halt last Monday. The overall ETF-flow was positive throughout last week, but the numbers from monday conclusively proved to be a different tale. Once again, the inflow into the likes such as IBIT and FBTC could not outpace the outflow from GBTC. The end result for Monday turned out to be $85.7 million in net outflows when combining the flow of all the ETFs, according to Farside. The spot ETFs fared better yesterday as the cumulative flow ended on a positive note, attaining $40.3 million in net inflows.

Surprisingly, ARKB posted $87.5 million in outflows yesterday and for the first time, the outflow from ARKB was greater than the outflow from GBTC - which ended up being $81.9 million. On a positive note, it's the first time since the 12th of March that the outflow from GBTC has been double-digit and not triple-digit (millions). 

In a broader outlook, as Eric Balchunas pointed out yesterday, the cumulative ETF volume is beginning to be quite spectacular. In March alone, the cumulative volume for the ETFs came in at around $111 billion and is, according to TheBlock, nearing the $200 billion dollar mark.

Two weeks ago, we highlighted the fact that Bitcoin undoubtedly thrives in an environment with “..lower interest rates and slower quantitative tightening (hence) risk-on”. On Friday, during an event hosted by the San Francisco Fed, Jerome Powell stated that: “We don't need to be in a hurry to cut”. Powell has always highlighted the 2% inflation goal and continues to reiterate the committee's approach as being “data-dependent”. A strong(er) US economy does not warrant immediate rate cuts, as lowering the interest rates too early would most likely make inflation tick up again. Thus, the showings of the purchasing managers` index (PMI) report which came out on Monday did not bode well for a potential cut in interest rates in June as the numbers exceeded expectations. The report indicates expansion in the US manufacturing sector for the month of March after contracting for 16 consecutive months.

Yet again, we believe that the numbers to watch - as always - remain to be the ETF numbers.

This text is intended to inform and is not an investment recommendation.

Best regards,
Adam Jakobsen.
NBX.

#bitcoin
Adam Jakobsen
April 2, 2024
2 minutes
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